The global PC market remained nearly flat in 2023 but AI-driven workloads are expected to drive growth in 2024.

"2023 was a challenging year for the PC industry, but companies have remained resilient and can now look forward to an improving landscape," said Himani Mukka, research manager at Canalys. "The cautious optimism across key players in the market has been borne out by a stronger holiday season compared to last year, and inventory corrections in the previous quarters have helped support renewed sell-in."

Shipments of notebooks hit 51.6 million units, up 4% from 2022, while desktop shipments landed at 13.7 million units, declining 1%, Canalys said in a press release.

PC shipments totaled 247 million units, marking a 13% drop compared to 2022, Canalys data showed.

"As macroeconomic conditions continue to improve, companies and individuals that have delayed their purchasing for many quarters are now set to resume spending on PCs," Mukka said.

Canalys said the growth in fourth-quarter PC shipments is because of a stronger holiday season and earlier inventory release by vendors in 2023.

Meanwhile, IDC said that in the fourth quarter of 2023, global shipments of traditional PCs slightly exceeded expectations, totaling nearly 67.1 million units, a 2.7% decrease from the previous year.

One positive aspect, IDC noted, is that the declines have bottomed out in the aftermath of the Covid-19-inspired surge in PC buying.

The PC market has seen unprecedented consecutive annual declines since 1995, with shipments dropping 16.5% in 2022 and an estimated 13.9% in 2023, IDC said, a downturn attributed to the post-COVID-19 decrease in demand after an earlier surge.

"While the market was down again in 2023 in terms of shipments, there is a lot of positive momentum for PCs looking forward," Ryan Reith, group vice president with IDC's Mobility and Consumer Device Trackers, said in a release. "AI has clearly captured everyone's attention, it shouldn't be overlooked that 2024 is expected to be a strong year for commercial PC refresh, and the advancements around gaming PCs continue to drive market excitement."

Canalys projects that one in five PCs shipped in 2024 will be AI-capable and will include a dedicated chipset to run on-device AI workloads.

"Adoption will ramp up quickly thereafter, especially in the commercial sector, where the benefits of on-device AI related to productivity, security, and cost management will become a key consideration for businesses," it said.

Canalys forecasts that over 170 million AI-capable PCs will be shipped in 2024 with nearly 60% being deployed in commercial settings.

Both Canalys and IDC agree that Lenovo shipped the most PCs in the fourth quarter of 2024, followed by Hewlett-Packard, Dell, and Apple.